IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan

Belgorod drone attacks: Who, What and Why?
On 24 May, RT reported on Belgorod Governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov report on drone attacks in Belgorod. Although no injuries were reported, a gas pipeline was observed to be damaged. On 23 May, RT reported on a similar attack in Belgorod, which was reported to be staged by Ukraine’s reconnaissance and sabotage group. According to Russia’s Ministry of Defence, those involved in the attack are identified as “Ukrainian nationalists” and were blocked through a “counterterrorist operation” by Russian forces. On 23 May, the New York Times reported on the claims of a spokesperson from Freedom of Russia Legion on the additional capturing of Gorkovsky and Shchetinovka villages (7.7 kilometres from Ukraine border).

Who are the perpetrators?
According to reports from Associated Press and the New York Times, two groups have claimed for the attacks, RDK and LSR.

According to the Russian Volunteer Corps, Commander, Denis Nikitin. The group is known as a “right-wing conservation, military, and semi-political organization.” Its military equipment is self-sourced, but claimed to be operating in cooperation with Ukraine’s Armed Forces. In a statement released by the RDK group in August 2022: “The Russian Volunteer Corps, in order to together with our Ukrainian comrades defend their homeland which gave us shelter, and then continue the fight against the criminal Putin regime and his henchmen.” This indicates the members of the group to be Russians with an anti-Russian sentiment.

The next group is the Freedom of Russia Legion. A spokesperson from the Freedom of Russia Legion stated that the group was formed in August 2022, functioning under Ukraine’s international Legion.  According to the spokesperson, members of LSR were identified as Russian volunteers who aimed to free the people in the border settlements in Russia. Such volunteers are seen as those who crossed into Ukraine, with no work experience and later changed their mind to fight.

Russia, Ukraine and the US: What do they claim?
Russia
According to Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, the attack was seen as a diversion or a response to Ukraine’s failure in Bakhmut. Russia also calls the intruders to be “saboteurs” operating under Ukraine and termed them “terrorists.” In response to the attacks, Russia claimed “mop-up operations” to remove the terrorist and evacuation of people from the Belgorod area. On the concerns raised against Russia regarding the security of the border control, the construction minister stated that Russia had spent USD 125 million to defence the Belgorod area through “mines, trenches, and barriers.”

Ukraine
Ukraine has not agreed to the accusations and denied involvement with either of the groups. On 23 May, Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister, Hanna Maliar said: “People who actually rebelled against Putin’s regime” were behind the attack. Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak blamed “underground guerrilla groups” that are “composed of Russian citizens.”

The US
On 22 May, Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank reported on Russia’s claims on the raids by the “Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR)” in Belgorod and capturing of Kozinka (Grayvoron region), Glotovo and Gora Podol (three to five kilometres from Ukraine border), later reclaimed by Russia.

On 23 May, the New York Times reported on the US State Department spokesperson’s comments on Russia’s accusation of the involvement of the US weapon systems. According to Matthew Miller: “We’re skeptical at this time of the veracity of these reports…the US does not encourage or enable strikes inside of Russia.”

Why did they launch attack?
The aim has been differentiating between both groups. Few members claim the incursion was aimed at creating a “demilitarized zone” between Ukraine and Russia and to free the people from the border regions. While others claim on creating a dent in Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s popularity, proving the existence of a gap in Russia’s security, and its vulnerability to such attacks. According to a report in the New York Times, the motive of the members of these groups has been to defend their new homeland (Ukraine) since the war began.

References
“The Belgorod region spent almost 10 billion rubles on the construction of protective structures,” realty.interfax.ru, 26 May 2023
Andrew E. Kramer, Valerie Hopkins and Michael Schwirtz, “Anti-Kremlin Fighters Take War to Russian Territory for a Second Day,” The New York Times, 23 May 2023
Michael Schwirtz, “Who Are the Soldiers Behind the Free Russia Legion?,” The New York Times, 23 May 2023
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan, “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2023,” Institute for the Study of War, 22 May 2023
“Ukrainian forces targeted Belgorod Region over 40 times on May 23 — governor,” TASS, 24 May 2023, Padmsahree: Check the hyphens for this and the next one.
“At least 500 houses incurred damages from sabotage attack on Belgorod Region — authorities,” TASS, 24 May 2023
“Kremlin comments on Kiev regime’s new attacks on Belgorod Region,” TASS, 24 May 2023

War in Ukraine: Day 456
By Rishika Yadav and Melvin George

War on the Ground
On 24 May, Ukraine’s Ministry of Community Development announced the signing of a memorandum with South Korea’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. The MOU is aimed at strengthening cooperation in reconstruction efforts. The five year memorandum focuses on integrated territorial planning, urban planning, transportation and social infrastructure development, decentralized energy, enterprise collaboration, job creation, and more. Ukraine seeks to benefit from Korea's expertise and involvement in reconstruction projects starting in 2023, offering transparent procedures, global management standards, digital tools, and state support. Discussions also covered key recovery priorities for 2023, including the Chornomorsk port concession, Danube cluster development, and Grain Initiative support.

On 25 May, the Ukrainian head of the Office of the President, Andriy Yermak, posted on Telegram that 106 groups of soldiers were brought back to the countryside, consisting of eight officers and 98 soldiers and sergeants who were deployed in the Bakhmut direction. The statement came as: “They displayed extraordinary bravery, preventing the enemy from advancing further into our Eastern territory. The coordination headquarters, following President Volodymyr Zelenskyi's directive, is dedicated to swiftly bringing everyone back home.”

On 26 May, Ukrinform reported that Lithuania hadannounced a fresh military aid package for Ukraine's Armed Forces, aiming to support their Euro-Atlantic perspective and contribute to peace and stability in the region. Lithuania’s Minister of National Defense, Arvydas Anušauskas, highlighted Lithuania's commitment as a steadfast friend to Ukraine during an online meeting. The aid package will consist of anti-drone equipment, ammunition, dry rations, and other assistance, with a total value of approximately EUR 465 million. Lithuania has also increased training and the number of instructors for the Ukrainian military. Finland has similarly pledged a military aid package exceeding EUR 100 million to Ukraine.

On 26 May, The Washington Post reported as the arrival of spring southern Ukraine, raising hopes of a long-awaited counteroffensive against Russian forces. Recent dry weather conditions have improved the prospects for the much-anticipated operation, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and others consider crucial to demonstrate Ukraine's ability to reclaim its land. Although no dramatic troop movements have been observed yet, the counteroffensive may already be quietly underway. The Zaporizhzhia region, with its agricultural landscape and the key city of Melitopol, is a significant focus for Ukrainian forces seeking to sever supply lines to Crimea and regain territory.

The Moscow View 
Claims by Russia
On 25 May, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu and Belarus’s Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin signed agreements on the procedure for storing Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus, causing concerns about de-escalation, according to European Commission Spokesperson Peter Stano. Stano emphasized that this step increases tensions, escalates the situation, and provokes further aggression by Russia and Belarus. Shoigu clarified that while the weapons are stored in Belarus, Russia retains control and authority over their use.

On 25 May, Sergey Shoigu claimed at the CSTO meeting that Western countries  are trying to prolong the conflict by supplying weapons and fighters regardless of the human casualties. The Kyiv tactics have evolved into terrorist activities, including sabotage and high profile-killings.  Moscow and Minsk signed a deal allowing the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on Belarus territory with the control over the weapons remaining with Russia.

On 25 May, Russia’s spokesperson Razvozhaev said that Black Sea Fleet forces shot down two Ukrainian drones and “several more” were neutralized that tried attacking Sevastopol in Crimea. No damages were reported.

On 25 May, Peskov said Russian forces knew how to protect the head of the state as a response to Skibitsky's threat to assassinate Putin. He called Ukraine: “A terrorist regime talks about its terrorist aspirations.”

On 25 May, the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting was held in the Great Kremlin Palace. Putin talked about Industrial cooperation through the ‘Made in Eurazes’ initiative, and branding with ‘Eurasian Quality Mark’ to meet the high standards. Strengthening technological, digital, financial sovereignty of the five member nations were given emphasis. Freedom of movement of goods, services, finance, human capital and newly added knowledge for raising the standards of education, health and public administration.

The West View         
Responses from the US and Europe     
On 24 May, Norwegian Defence Minister Bjoern Arild Gram announced that Norway would provide support for training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets. This follows US President Joe Biden's endorsement of such training programs and assurances from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that the aircraft will not be used to enter Russian territory. Gram stated that the Norwegian government is considering how Norway, in collaboration with allies and partners, can contribute to this initiative. However, no decision has been made regarding whether Norway will transfer any of its F-16 jets to Ukraine. Russia has expressed opposition to such transfers, questioning NATO's role in the conflict.

On 24 May, Bloomberg News reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin had taken significant measures to mobilize Russia's economy for war since the invasion of Ukraine. The central bank has been enlisted in the effort, with decorated military officer Sergey Belov appointed as a deputy governor to oversee "field institutions" that allocate funds from the state budget to combat troops. This role, responsible for banking transactions that bypass commercial lenders and safeguard state secrets, is unprecedented for a central bank official with military functions. The Bank of Russia operates nearly 90 field offices, which cater to the banking needs of frontline units, including cash handling, money transfers, and issuing payment cards. While the Bank of Russia aims to project itself as a technocratic institution focused on monetary policy, it has become an integral part of the war economy, offering financial incentives and benefits to encourage Russian volunteers to join the fight. The central bank's increasing involvement in military affairs signifies the current career opportunities for individuals from military and security backgrounds in various civilian sectors in Russia.

On 24 May, the US State Department approved a potential Foreign Military Sale of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) and related equipment to Ukraine for an estimated USD 285 million. The sale aims to enhance Ukraine's defence capabilities against Russian missile strikes and aircraft, without disrupting the regional military balance. Raytheon Missiles and Defence will be the primary contractor. The US Defence Security Cooperation Agency reported: “No additional US personnel will be required for implementation, and it will not impact US defense readiness.”

On 25 May, the Council of EU approved the extension of trade concessions for Ukrainian exports to the EU for another year until June 2024, including the suspension of customs duties, quotas, and trade defense measures. The measures aim to maintain stable trade relations and support Ukraine's economy during challenging circumstances. The extension aligns with the Association Agreement's commitment to promoting sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence. The regulation covers outstanding customs duties, anti-dumping duties, and safeguards for imports from Ukraine. The European Parliament's approval and subsequent signing will precede the regulation's entry into force on 06 June.

On 24 May, The Wall Street Journal reported that South Korea, initially hesitated to provide lethal assistance due to concerns about violating its policy of offering only nonlethal support to Ukraine, has reversed its decision and is now proceeding with the transfer of hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, a move that US officials believe will enhance Kyiv's planned offensive against Russian forces. This decision allows the White House to postpone a difficult choice regarding the supply of cluster munitions, which are banned by many countries. The shells will be transferred from South Korea to the US, which will then arrange for their delivery to Ukraine. South Korea's contribution of ammunition has relieved some pressure on the U.S., as its own artillery supplies have been dwindling. The breakthrough in South Korea's ammunition supply follows a joint security declaration between Washington and Seoul, strengthening their ties and granting Seoul greater influence in consultations regarding a potential nuclear response to a North Korean attack.

On 25 May, Sweden Post English reported that according to TV4 Nyheterna, Ukrainian pilots will have the opportunity to practice flying the Swedish fighter aircraft Jas 39 Gripen, along with simulator training. Sweden’s Defence Minister Pål Jonsson stated: “This will provide Ukraine with a basis for future decisions regarding its defense capabilities.” The training involves a select group of experienced individuals who have already undergone Ukrainian pilot training. However, specific details regarding the orientation training, such as the location and timing, remain undisclosed. Minister of Defence and Minister for Civil Defence Carl-Oskar Bohlin are currently in Ukraine, visiting military units that utilize Swedish defence equipment. It is emphasized that, at present, it is not relevant to lend any planes to Ukraine due to Sweden's own national defence requirements. Ukraine is exploring other options for the long term, including American F16 and European Tornado planes, although the Jas Gripen is considered more affordable and easier to learn to fly than the F16.

On 25 May, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, speaking at the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting, expressed the belief that the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) should emerge as a significant decision-making hub in the world. Lukashenko highlighted the need to replace the current unipolar world order with new centers that consider the interests of all international participants. He emphasized that the attention given to events in Moscow signifies the EAEU's potential as one of these centers. Lukashenko also mentioned progress made in securing financial support for joint manufacturing projects within the EAEU, describing it as a pivotal document with anticipated practical outcomes.

References
Oleksandr Azarkhina, “Ministry of Reconstruction strengthens cooperation with public and private partners of the Republic of Korea in reconstruction issues,” Facebook, 24 May 2023
“We are bringing home 106 of our people,” Telegram, 25 May 2023
“Lithuania announces new military aid package to Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 26 May 2023
Adam Taylor and Anastacia Galouchka, “Sunny weather in southern Ukraine suggests new fighting season has begun,” The Washington Post, 26 May 2023
“Russia-Belarus nuclear agreement 'does not contribute to de-escalation' — EU,” TASS, 25 May 2023
“More than 2,500 foreign mercenaries fighting for Ukraine – Shoigu,” RT, 25 May 2023
“Russian military repels another drone attack on Crimea – authorities,” RT, 25 May 2023
“Kremlin responds to Ukrainian threat to kill Putin,”RT, 25 May 2023
“Заседание Высшего Евразийского экономического совета,” Kremlin, 25 May 2023
“Norway says it will help train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jets,” Reuters, 24 May 2023
“Putin’s Central Bank Is Also on the Battlefield in Ukraine,” Bloomberg News, 24 May 2023
“Ukraine – National Advanced Surface-To-Air Missile System (NASAMS),” dsca.mil, 24 May 2023
“Ukraine: Council adopts renewal of temporary trade liberalisation and other trade concessions,” europa.eu, 25 May 2023
Gordon Lubold and Michael R. Gordon, “South Korean Artillery Supply Allows U.S. to Delay Decision on Cluster Munitions for Ukraine,” The Wall Street Journal, 24 May 2023
“Ukrainian pilots will be allowed to test fly the Gripen – Sydsvenskan,” Sweden Post English, 25 May 2023
“Lukashenka: the movement of nuclear weapons has begun,” Telegram, 25 May 2023
“China calls on EU to address ‘root cause’ of Ukraine conflict,” RT, 25 May 2023

IN BRIEF
By Sreeja JS and Nityashree RB

FINLAND
Increase in immigrant numbers in 2022
On 25 May, Statistics Finland reported that a record-breaking 49,998 people immigrated to Finland in 2022. According to the Director of Development at the Finnish Immigration Service Johannes Hirvela, the removal of the entry restriction due to COVID-19 has contributed to the stark rise in the number of immigrants numbers. He added that more work permits have been acquired and students have also arrived in great numbers because of Finland’s low tuition fee. The number of asylum seekers has been the same. A large number of immigrants hail from Russia followed by Sweden, India, Estonia, and the Philippines. Ukrainians are given temporary protection only. According to Statistics Finland, the population of six regions have increased because of the immigrant inflow. (Aleksi Teivainen, “Record-breaking 50,000 people immigrated to Finland in 2022,” Helsinki Times, 25 May 2023)
 
Debates on immigration in the coalition formation talks
On 25 May, one of the parties involved in the coalition talks, the Finns Party, demanded agreements on Climate and Immigration must be concluded by the end of this week. Else, the party will walk away from the coalition. Chairperson of the Finns Party, Riika Purra said that work-based immigration is to be provided to immigrants outside of the EU who can earn over EUR 2500 per month. She quoted the Ministry of Finance’s calculation and said that it will contribute to the public economy. In response, a financial advisor in the Ministry of Finance Jukka Mattila said even if an immigrant earns over EUR 2000 they can contribute to the public economy. Mattila added that setting a limit of EUR 2500 for both work-based immigrants and other immigrants fails to consider other factors such as their age. Reaching agreements on climate and immigration has been the priority for the four parties. Diverging interests exist such as the Swedish People’s Party's call for a restriction on humanitarian and work-based immigration and the National Coalition Party wants to speed up climate action. (Aleksi Teivainen, “Orpo believes in breakthrough but admits talks on immigrant are difficult,” Helsinki Times, 26 May 2023; Aleksi Teivainen, “Finns Party’s demand for €2,500 income limit for immigrants based on misunderstanding, says official", Helsinki Times, 25 May 2023)
 
GERMANY
Inflation pushes Germany into recession
On 25 May, Politico.eu reported that the economic output of Germany for the first quarter of the year 2023 has fallen 0.3 per cent due to the inflation rate of 7.2 per cent. According to BBC News, Germany is being pushed into recession due to inflation between January and March 2023. The coalition government have diverging interest to deal with inflation. The Greens want to tax the rich and invest in climate protection plans, and the Free Democrats demand deregulation. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats Party want to bring in skilled foreign labour and invest in green industries. According to Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action of Robert Habeck, Germany might have to cut its budget up to EUR 22 billion next year. The Bundesbank, the German central bank however expects the economy to grow modestly in the April to June quarter with a rebound in industry to revive consumer spending.  According to Federal Minister of Finance Christian Lindner, the government can expect a shortfall of EUR 30 billion in tax incomes. (Hans Von Der Burchard and Peter Wilke, “Germany in recession: Berlin braces for budget cut battle,” Politico.eu, 25 May 2023; Lucy Hooker, “Germany falls into recession as inflation hits economy,” BBC News, 25 May 2023)
 
POLAND
Government to launch submarine purchase programme soon
On 24 May, Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak announced the government’s plan to launch a submarine purchase programme in 2023 at the Defence24Day conference. According to the minister, the ‘Orka’ program will outline the procedure to purchase submarines and the transfer of necessary technologies. (Karol Badohal and Pawel Florkkiewicz, “Poland to launch submarine purchase programme soon - minister,” Reuters, 24 May 2023)
 
THE UK
First AUKUS artificial intelligence and autonomy trial held
On 26 May, UK’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory hosted the first-ever AUKUS artificial intelligence and autonomy trial. The initial joint deployment had a collaboration of Australian, UK and US AI-enabled assets detecting and tracking military targets in a representative environment in real time. It also included live training of models in flight and the interchange of AI models between AUKUS nations. The collaboration is aimed at rapidly transforming these technologies into military capabilities. The trial was organized under AUKUS Advanced Capabilities Pillar, known as Pillar 2, a trilateral initiative to pursue cutting-edge technologies and capabilities to promote security and stability in the Indo-Pacific. (Ministry of Defence and Defence Science and Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, “World first as UK hosts inaugural AUKUS AI and autonomy trial”, GOV.UK, 26 May 2023)
 
REGIONAL
A blooming Germany-Romania partnership
On 24 May, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier reached Romania. He is on a three-day visit in which he will meet the Romanian President Klaus Iohannis in Bucharest. Steinmeier’s focus will be establishing strategic cooperation with Romania to support Ukraine and Moldova. The trade between Germany and Romania values up to EUR 33 billion. According to Deutsche Welle, 23,000 German companies are in Romania and have created 300,000 jobs. According to Romanian Ambassador to Berlin Adriana Stanescu: “Romania is developing into a secure strategic investment and business location for Germany.” The Ukrainian War and Germany’s changing foreign and defence policy offer Romania to forge a partnership with Germany which can enhance Romania’s presence in the EU and NATO. (Sabina Fati and Keno Verseck, “President Steinmeier’s Romania visit signals closening ties,” Deutsche Welle, 25 May 2023)
 
EC adopts WTO's agreement on fisheries subsidies agreement
On 25 May, European Council approved, on behalf of the EU, the World Trade Organization protocol establishing a fisheries subsidies agreement that focuses on environmental sustainability in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goal 14.6. The agreement includes a prohibition on subsidies contributing to illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing along with fishing in the unregulated high seas. It also consists of a prohibition on subsidies for fishing overfished stocks to rebuild such stocks to healthy levels. This agreement will come into full force once two-thirds of WTO members complete their domestic ratification process. (“WTO: Council approves an agreement on fisheries subsidies to boost environmental sustainability,” consilium.europa.eu, 25 May 2023)
 
OpenAI CEO faces backlash for threatening to leave if the bloc “overregulated”
On 25 May, Reuters reported that OpenAI CEO, Sam Altman is being severely criticized for threatening to leave the EU if the bloc “overregulated” through the new AI Act. He has been meeting top politicians in France, Spain, Poland, Germany and the UK to discuss the matter. Dutch MEP Kim van Sparrentak criticized the threat by saying that she and her colleagues will not let American companies blackmail them and called them unfit for Europe if they cannot comply with the basic data governance rules. OpenAI first clashed with the Italian regulator Garante, for shutting down ChatGPT for violating European privacy rules. ChatGPT was restored later when the company renewed its privacy policy. Meanwhile, EU lawmakers added new proposals to the Act such as disclosing copyrighted materials used to train generative tools like ChatGPT. EU parliamentarians have agreed on the draft of the act in early May 2023 and the law is likely to be passed later this year. (Matin Coutler and Supantha Mukherjee, “OpenAI CEO's threat to quit EU draws lawmaker backlash,” Reuters, 25 May 2023)
 
INTERNATIONAL
France expresses concerns over Iran’s ballistic missile test 
On 25 May, the French Foreign Ministry spokesperson Anne-CLaire Legendre said that Iran's test-fire of ballistic missiles is concerning amid its nuclear programme escalation. The comment comes as a response to Iran’s test firing of a 2000 kilometres range ballistic missile on 25 May. She accused Iran of violating the UN Security Council’s 2231 resolution which limits Iran from pursuing “any activity” relating to ballistic missiles with nuclear capability. Legendre said: “Iran's activities pose serious and increased non-proliferation risks without any credible civilian justification.” (John Irish, “France says Iran ballistic test worrying in light of nuclear escalation,” Reuters, 25 May 2023)